Jay’s Blog

By examining the history of Afghanistan and of opium production generally, we can get a better idea of what the causes might be of rises and falls in its production during the 20th century and up to today. This article will discuss the origins of the opium trade, and will examine which circumstances in Afghanistan have been favourable or unfavourable to its production. This should make it possible to predict what might happen with Afghan opium production in the future.

A Brief History of Opium

The beginning of the opium trade as a modern global economic enterprise can be traced to the British East India Company in the 18th century. During this time the British, as well as several other European states, established trading posts in India. The British East India Company specifically pursed a monopoly on the production and export of Indian opium. By 1773, they had eliminated all other large competitors and established a de facto monopoly. In the following years, they worked to eliminate most independent middlemen, ensuring they had complete control over the entire supply chain.

During this time, British merchants were actively involved in exporting opium into China, where the drug was banned. The amount of exports were increased from 15 tons in 1730 to 75 tons by 1773. The Chinese government issued decrees against the import of the drug and tried to stop smuggling, without much success. This led to increasing tension with the British. By the 1920s, China was importing 900 tons of opium annually.

This situation led to the two Opium Wars in the mid 19th century between China and the British, both of which were won decisively by the British. China was forced into signing several disadvantageous treaties which granted the British broad trade and economic rights and legalized opium import. This included a treaty which ceded the territory of Hong Kong to Britain (and which was only returned to China in 1997.)

By the late 19th and early 20th century, opium was one of the largest commercial enterprises in the world. However, in the early 20th century many countries began to pass laws making opium illegal, partly because of fear of western addiction, which marked a transition of the enterprise from a legal to an illicit one. Despite the massive profits (and built-in demand from addicts) the regulatory changes seem to have had a significant effect. After the turn of the century, opium production dropped radically around the world.

Of course, despite the new laws this was still a very profitable enterprise, and with millions of existing addicts, there was a large pre-existing demand, so opium production did not disappear completely. Many areas in Asia continued to produce opium. During the 50s China engaged in a massive anti-drug effort, which led to the “Golden Triangle” area of Laos, Myanmar and Thailand becoming one of the largest producers in the world during the 60s and 70s. The area continues to be a significant producer of opium to this day.

Opium in Afghanistan

During the early to mid 20th century there was no opium industry in Afghanistan. Some farmers grew poppies on a small scale in order to supply local markets, but this was very limited. However, after the Soviets invaded Afghanistan in 1979, many warlords came to power and had a desperate need to generate revenue in order to purchase weapons. Opium became the crop of choice.

This was the cold war, of course, so the Americans were very interested in providing support to Afghan insurgents with the hope that they would fight, and weaken, the USSR. These Mujahideen fighters organized opium production and vastly increased it. As they gained control over territory, they even ordered local peasants to plant poppies as part of a “revolutionary tax”, as documented in this article.

The focus on the cold war meant that the US did not oppose the Afghan drug trade, and indeed may have assisted it. As opium production (and addiction) continued to grow, Afghanistan soon became the largest producer of opium in the world, surpassing the Golden Triangle.

After the withdrawal of the Red Army, and the subsequent suspension of western support and funding, a civil war erupted as various warlords tried to gain dominance. These struggles required additional funding and weapons, which meant yet more opium production. During this time the Taliban emerged and eventually gained power in the late 90s.

Once the Taliban consolidated their rule and after the fighting generally stopped, some measure of stability was achieved. This led to a declaration in July 2000 by Taliban leader Mohammed Omar that opium production was un-Islamic. The Taliban then followed this up with a massive anti-drug campaign, actively enforced throughout the country.

As this UN study (PDF) reports, they achieved a “near total success of the ban in eliminating poppy cultivation” and reduced production areas by a massive 91 percent. Helmand Province, one of the largest production areas in prior years, had its production reduced to zero.

After the western invasion of 2001, however, this situation very quickly reversed itself. Once again, the need for funds and weapons by insurgents meant that poppy production had to be increased dramatically. In fact, over the past few years production has surpassed all previous levels and Afghanistan currently supplies about 93 percent of the world’s opiates, according to another UN report (PDF). This amounts to over 64 billion dollars in exports and represents about half of Afghan GDP.

The opium industry is so widespread in Afghanistan, it is not limited only to the insurgents. Many government officials, including those close to current President Karzai, are involved in, and benefit from, the opium trade. As one former US state department official stated: “Narco-corruption goes to the top of the Afghan government”.

The conclusion seems to be that instability and war are the primary factors responsible for increased opium production in Afghanistan. Before the Soviet invasion, and during the brief rule of the Taliban, opium production was either very limited, or deliberated curtailed.

I predicted that the War in Afghanistan will soon be over, and that the Taliban will likely regain power afterwards. This makes it easy to predict, then, that Afghanistan will cease to be a major opium producer relatively soon after the war is over.