Afghanistan, China: Karzai’s Opportune Visit to Beijing

March 24, 2010

Chinese President Hu Jintao and Afghan President Hamid Karzai

at a welcoming ceremony in Beijing, China, on March 24

Afghan President Hamid Karzai is on a three-day trip to China, during which he has met with Chinese President Hu Jintao and is scheduled to meet with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao. He is expected to seek financial aid and economic deals along with support for his plans to establish a stable government in Kabul after U.S. forces leave. China, meanwhile, has reasons of its own to forge closer ties with Afghanistan.

Afghan President Hamid Karzai met with Chinese President Hu Jintao on March 24 on the second day of a three-day trip to China. Karzai, who is accompanied by a delegation of Afghan businessmen, also is scheduled to meet with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao. The trip comes at a critical time for Afghanistan as it tries to stabilize its government amid insurgency and make plans for the period after international forces withdraw. China, meanwhile, has both short- and long-term security and economic interests in Afghanistan, and is an ally of Pakistan, the most influential player in Afghanistan’s future.

Karzai is in Beijing primarily to see if he can secure more financial aid and economic deals to bolster his government. He is in an extremely fragile situation, struggling to bring some semblance of stability to the country’s economy to reduce the Taliban’s support and solidify his authority, all in the context of heightening conflict between the Taliban insurgency and U.S.-led international troops that are increasing their counter-insurgency efforts. Karzai also will seek Chinese support for his plans for establishing a stable government after the withdrawal of U.S. troops, a subject of intense interest among a number of international players.

The Chinese, for their part, have shown a willingness to help with reconstruction and development in Afghanistan. This is not meant as support for U.S. efforts. Strategically, China is happy to have the United States bogged down in Afghanistan and elsewhere, because as long as Washington is focused there, its ability to push its interests elsewhere — especially in ways that could pressure China — is limited. Rather, China presents its assistance as a commitment to regional stability and international efforts at resolving the conflict while pursuing its interests in the country.

Most importantly, Beijing fears the lawlessness that allows militancy to thrive in Afghanistan is also nurturing financing, training and ideological support for militants or would-be militants in China’s northwestern region of Xinjiang. Though the border between China and Afghanistan is only about 62 miles of extremely rugged mountains, there are various channels through which China suspects militant connections can be formed between Central Asia and Xinjiang. Beijing also sees an opportunity in developing its interests in Afghanistan’s natural resources — especially mining, as with China Metallurgical Group’s $3 billion investment in the Aynak copper mine in Afghanistan — and markets, through its Central Asian trade routes.

So far Karzai’s trip does not appear to have been wildly successful in getting Afghanistan enhanced financial support. The two sides are said to have signed three agreements on March 24, with only the vaguest details released about the nature of the cooperation other than to expand technical training, economic cooperation and China’s no-tariff policies toward some Afghan exports. The Chinese are also expected to commit $23 million in aid — a token sum but in proportion with previous aid commitments of $130 million since 2002 and a promised $75 million in the next five years. Moreover, the Chinese have also shown themselves willing to send developers into Afghanistan to continue building infrastructure.

However, the biggest indicator of success for Karzai’s trip will be whether he can persuade the Chinese to play some role in mediating between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Afghanistan is caught in the middle of increasing competition between foreign powers — not only the United States but also Pakistan and India, Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Turkey — over what kind of power arrangement will exist in Afghanistan after the U.S. withdrawal. Pakistan is positioned to wield extensive influence in Afghanistan in terms of fighting the irreconcilable parts of the Taliban, negotiating with the reconcilable parts and establishing political relations to buttress the Afghan government in the future. But Afghanistan is also working with India, Pakistan’s chief rival, to limit Pakistan’s control. This raises the question of China’s role.

China does not want to be excluded from the international negotiations, especially given its security concerns in the region and alliance with Pakistan. Before Sept. 11, 2001, Beijing maintained relations with the Taliban, and it could reactivate those ties to assist with the reconciliation efforts and to gain more support for the Afghan government. Moreover, Karzai will seek Chinese assistance in restraining Pakistan from pressing its interests too aggressively. But China will be unlikely to give much on Pakistan, since doing so would give India room to maneuver.

China’s role in Afghanistan extends beyond its economic and security interests in reconstruction to the question of how it will navigate the ongoing international negotiations toward a political settlement. While China is unlikely to take bold actions in Afghanistan, it will seek to secure its long-term interests in the country as the new dynamic takes shape, and that is one reason to pay attention to the outcome of Karzai’s visit. 

This entry was posted on 25. March 2010 at 03:50 and is filed under Afganistan. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response or trackback from your own site.

| Print